Predictive factors of mortality in patients admitted to the emergency department for SARS-Cov2 pneumonia


Sami Souissi
Héla Ben Turkia
Soumaya Saad
Syrine Keskes
Camilia Jeddi
Hanene Ghazali


Introduction: The overcrowding of intensive care units during the corona virus pandemic increased the number of patients managed in the emergency department (ED).

The detection timely of the predictive factors of mortality and bad outcomes improve the triage of those patients.

Aim: To define the predictive factors of mortality at 30 days among patients admitted on ED for covid-19 pneumonia.

Methods:  This was a prospective, monocentric, observational study for 6 months. Patients over the age of 16 years admitted on the ED for hypoxemic pneumonia due to confirmed SARS-COV 2 infection by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) were included. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the predictive factors of mortality at 30 days.

Results: 463 patients were included. Mean age was 65±14 years, Sex-ratio=1.1. Main comorbidities were hypertension (49%) and diabetes (38%). Mortality rate was 33%. Patients who died were older (70±13 vs. 61±14;p<0.001), and had more comorbidities: hypertension (57% vs. 43%, p=0.018), chronic heart failure (8% vs. 3%, p=0.017), and coronary artery disease (12% vs. 6%, p=0.030).

By multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with 30-day mortality were age ≥65 years aOR: 6.9, 95%CI 1.09-44.01;p=0.04) SpO2<80% (aOR: 26.6, 95%CI 3.5-197.53;p=0.001) and percentage of lung changes on CT scan>70% (aOR: 5.6% 95%CI .01-31.29;p=0.04).

Conclusion: Mortality rate was high among patients admitted in the ED for covid-19 pneumonia. The identification of predictive factors of mortality would allow better patient management.



COVID, pneumonia, mortality, prognosis, sarscov2



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