Burden of breast and gynecological cancers in Tunisia between 1990 and 2030:Trend and projection

Abstract

Background: To describe the burden of breast and gynecological cancers in Tunisia in 2017, to analyze the trend between 1990 and 2017 and to performit’s prediction by 2030.
Methods:This was a study using data estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for years of life by breast cancer and gynecological cancers: ovary, cervix and uterus (endometrium and other unspecified parts of the uterus) in Tunisia in 2017.The trend analysis of age standardized DALYrate between 1990 and 2017 was analyzed by using Join Point software.The projection of number of DALY and YLL by 2030 was conducted by SPSS software using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models.
Results:In 2017, the age standardized DALYs rate for breast and gynecological cancers was 538.5/100,000 women. Breast cancer proved observed the highest rate of standardized DALY rate with 378.5/100,000 women followed by ovarian cancer (rate standardized DALY=72.7/100,000 women).The standardized DALY rate increased between 1990 and 2017 except for cervix cancer and uterine cancer which have been on a downward trend. According to the same conditions between 1990 and 2017, the age standardized DALY rate in 2030 will reach 674.6/100,000 women (95% CI=667.2/100,000-682.1/100,000).  
Conclusion:Strengthening prevention strategy against cancer in general and women’s cancers in particularis strongly recommended to reduce cancer burden and to changeits trend.